Elemen-elemen Politik sebagai Strategi Mengkapitalisasi Perilaku Pemilih dalam Kontestasi Pemilu Presiden tahun 2024 di Indonesia
Political Elements as a Strategy to Capitalize on Voter Behavior in the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election
Abstract
This year’s Presidential and Vice-Presidential election is a political power struggle that will determine the future of the Indonesian nation. This qualitative research aims to assess electoral politics, specifically the electability of each candidate pair based on key political elements. The research method used is a literature review, with secondary data obtained from journal articles, books, and online sources. The results of the study indicate that trends in candidate electability can be measured through the harmonization of political survey results and the configuration of each candidate’s electability. The candidate pairs incorporate political elements such as identity politics, political blunders, work programs, elite or key actors, public gimmicks and sensationalism, and political maneuvers, as seen in the campaigns of Anies-Muhaimin, Prabowo-Gibran, and Ganjar-Mahfud. These political elements, which have long existed in Indonesia’s political arena (conventional elements), often dramatically shift the electoral strength of each camp. The candidates must manage these political elements to their electoral advantage if they wish to increase their electability and win the election. This study examines the strategy of capitalizing on voter behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election.
Downloads
References
Anna-Sophie Kurella & Milena Rapp. (2024). Combining voter preferences with party position estimates from different sources for studying voting behavior and representation. Electoral Studies, 87.
Anggrainy, Firda Cynthia. (2023). Adu Elektabilitas 3 Capres Berdasarkan 3 Survei di Awal Kampanye. Detiknews. https://news.detik.com/pemilu/d-7082623/adu-elektabilitas-3-capres-berdasarkan-3-survei-di-awal-kampanye/3
Apriani, Kadek D. (2019). Efek Ekor Jas dan Identifikasi Partai Politik dalam Pemilu Serentak 2019 di Bali. Jurnal Bali Membangun Bali, 2(1), 11-20.
Aryanti, M. Putri. (2023). Efek Bandwagon dan Underdog dalam Survey Politik. Kompasiana.com. https://www.kompasiana.com/mparyanti/65098cca08a8b55b003909a2/efek-bandwagon-dan-underdog-dalam-survey-politik
Azzahra, F.. (2023). Ketua Repnas: Pilpres Satu Putaran Berdampak Positif bagi Perekonomian Indonesia. Kompas.com. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2023/12/19/10591091/ketua-repnas-pilpres-satu-putaran-berdampak-positif-bagi-perekonomian#google_vignette
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2012). Kewarganegaraan, Suku Bangsa, Agama, dan Bahasa Sehari-Hari Penduduk Indonesia. Jakarta: BPS.
_________________________. (2023). Laporan Indeks Khusus Penanganan Stunting 2021-2022. Jakarta: BPS.
Bruno P. Carvalho, C. Custódio, B. Geys, D. Mendes, & S. Peralta. (2023). Information, perceptions, and electoral behaviour of young voters: A randomised controlled experiment. Electoral Studies, 84.
Budiardjo, Miriam. (2008). Dasar-Dasar Ilmu Politik. Jakarta: Gramedia Pustaka Pustaka Utama.
Candraningrum, Diah A. (2017). Brand Activation, Strategi Komunikasi pada Lembaga Survei Politik di Putaran Pertama Pilkada DKI Jakarta 2017. Jurnal Muara Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 1(1), 71-79.
Devit, Muhammad & Nanang Ridwan. (2023). Dampak Framing Hasil Survey Pemilihan Presiden 2024 Mempengaruhi Persepsi Publik. Jurnal Kajian Ilmiah, 23(3), 233-242.
Farchan, Yusa’ dan Agisthia Lestari. (2022). Selubung Makna Baliho Elite Partai Politik: Perspektif Filsafat Bahasa Biasa. Jurnal Adhikari, 2(2), 302-317.
Fikri, Chairul. (2023). Survei LSI: Elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran Terus Meningkat, Ganjar-Mahfud Menurun. BeritaSatu.com. https://www.beritasatu.com/bersatu-kawal-pemilu/2786108/survei-lsi-elektabilitas-prabowo-gibran-terus-meningkat-ganjar-mahfud-menurun
Friedrich, Carl. (1967). An Introduction to Political Theory. New York Harper and Row.
Gelora News. (2023). 3 Hasil Survei Elektabilitas Jelang Debat Cawapres: Anies-Imin Salip Ganjar-Mahfud, Prabowo-Gibran?. Gelora News. https://www.gelora.co/2023/12/3-hasil-survei-elektabilitas-jelang.html
Ghulam, Agus. (2023). Serba-Serbi Blunder Capres-Cawapres: dari Anti Buzzer, Ndasmu Etik, hingga Istri Tidak Baik. ERA.ID. https://era.id/BA-BI-BU/144535/serba-serbi-blunder-capres-cawapres-dari-anti-buzzer-ndasmu-etik-hingga-istri-tidak-baik
Gracia, Magdalena S. (2020). Efektivitas Kampanye Politik di Instagram untuk Mempengaruhi Niat Pemilih. COMMENTATE: Journal of Communication Management, 1(1), 72-82.
Guritno, Tatang. (2023). Survei Litbang “Kompas”: Elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran 39,3 Persen, Anies-Muhaimin 16,7 Persen, Ganjar-Mahfud 15,3 Persen. Kompas.com. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2023/12/11/05433671/survei-litbang-kompas-elektabilitas-prabowo-gibran-393-persen-anies-muhaimin
Hanna Back, Royce Carroll, Emma Renstrom, & Alexander Ryan. (2023). Elite communication and affective polarization among voters. Electoral Studies, 84.
Haryono. (2019). Identity Politics and Symbolic Interactions Between Sundanese and Javanese in Indonesia. JCIC: Jurnal CIC Lembaga Riset dan Konsultan Sosial, 1(1), 49-56. https://doi.org/10.51486/jbo.v1i1.7
Helmi, Isnaya. (2023). PSI Resmi Dukung Prabowo-Gibran di 2024, Kaesang: Kami Berpesan Jadikan Pemilu Santun dan Santuy. KOMPAS.tv. https://www.kompas.tv/nasional/454891/psi-resmi-dukung-prabowo-gibran-di-2024-kaesang-kami-berpesan-jadikan-pemilu-santun-dan-santuy
Hermaliza dan Ermawati S. (2020). Politisasi Bahasa melalui Eufemisme dalam Program Berita di Televisi. Geram (Gerakan Aktif Menulis), 8(1), 37-47.
Hudson, David, Claire Mcloughlin, Anna Margaret, dan Yolanda Pandjaitan. (2020). Leadership, Identity and Performance: The Nature and Effect of Prototypicality in Indonesia. Politics and Governance, 8(4), 201-213.
Hunter, Floyd. (1953). Community Power Structure. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press.
Indikator. (2023). Swing Voters, Efek Sosialisasi dan Tren Elektoral Jelang Pilpres 2024. https://indikator.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/RILIS-INDIKATOR-30-SEPTEMBER-2023.pdf
Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2023). Prevalensi Stunting di Indonesia Turun ke 21,6% dari 24,4%. https://sehatnegeriku.kemkes.go.id/baca/rilis-media/20230125/3142280/prevalensi-stunting-di-indonesia-turun-ke-216-dari-244/
Komisi Pemilihan Umum. (2023). DPT Pemilu 2024 Dalam Negeri dan Luar Negeri, 204,8 Juta Pemilih. https://www.kpu.go.id/berita/baca/11702/dpt-pemilu-2024-nasional-2048-juta-pemilih
Kurniawan, Budi. (2009). Pengaruh Publikasi Hasil Survey Politik Terhadap Perilaku Memilih. Project Report. DIPA FISIP, Jurusan Ilmu Pemerintahan, Universitas Lampung, Bandar Lampung.
Kustiawan, Winda, Ruslan Padli, Nadya A. Ningrum, & Siti N. A. Syahputri. (2022). Pentingnya Propaganda Politik Menuju Pilpres 2024. Jurnal Ilmu Komputer, Ekonomi dan Manajamen (JIKEM), 2(1), 1941-1949.
Machiavelli, Niccolo. (2018). The Prince: Sang Penguasa (Terj. Natalia Triaju). Surabaya: Ecosystem Publishing
Mahadika, Gilang. (2021). Conditional Harmony: The Relations between Mining Company and Local People. JCIC: Jurnal CIC Lembaga Riset Dan Konsultan Sosial, 3(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.51486/jbo.v3i1.24
Mauluddin, Agus & Novianti. (2020). The Role of the Population, Family Planning and Family Development Program (KKBPK) in Reducing Stunting Prevalence. JCIC: Jurnal CIC Lembaga Riset Dan Konsultan Sosial, 2(1), 19-28. https://doi.org/10.51486/jbo.v2i1.50
Mauluddin, A. (2023). PERILAKU PEMILIH KOTA BANDUNG: RELASI ELITE DAN MASYARAKAT . Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Sosiologi (PKNS), 1(2), 30–33. Retrieved from https://www.pkns.portalapssi.id/index.php/pkns/article/view/89
Muhtadi, Burhanuddin. (2013). Politik Uang dan Dinamika Elektoral di Indonesia: Sebuah Kajian Awal Interaksi antara “Party-ID” dan Patron-Klien. Jurnal Penelitian Politik, 10(1), 41-58.
Mulyana, Kurniawan Eka. (2023). Survei LSI Denny JA: Tingkat Kepuasan Publik terhadap Jokowi Meningkat dalam 3 Bulan Terakhir. Kompas. https://www.kompas.tv/nasional/462490/survei-lsi-denny-ja-tingkat-kepuasan-publik-terhadap-jokowi-meningkat-dalam-3-bulan-terakhir#
Nurafifah, Nisma L. & Fitriyah. (2021). False Participation in the Nomination: Female Legislative Candidate Failure Number 1. JCIC: Jurnal CIC Lembaga Riset dan Konsultan Sosial, 3(2), 27-38. https://doi.org/10.51486/jbo.v3i2.32
Pepinsky, Tom. (2019). Pembelahan Agama dan Etnis dalam Pilpres 2019. Tirto.id. https://tirto.id/pembelahan-agama-dan-etnis-dalam-pilpres-2019-eamN
Poltracking Indonesia. (2024). Tren Elektabilitas Capres-Cawapres, Satu atau Dua Putaran?. https://poltracking.com/rilis-temuan-survei-nasional-poltracking-indonesia-tren-elektabilitas-capres-cawapres-satu-atau-dua-putaranrilis-temuan-survei-nasional-poltracking-indonesia/
Raharjo, Agus. (2023). Survei New Indonesia: Elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran Tembus 50 Persen Lebih. Republika Online. https://pemilukita.republika.co.id/berita/s5dj7e436/survei-new-indonesia-elektabilitas-prabowogibran-tembus-50-persen-lebih
Rahma Y. Hasibuan, Rini A. Berutu, Agnes C. Siringo-ringo, Dedek Harianto, Lofica M. Ginting, Cindy Nababan, Satya Nainggolan, Prayetno. (2023). Tingkat Elektabilitas Bakal Capres Pemilu 2024 Studi Kasus Mahasiswa PPKn FIS Unimed Stambuk 2020. Multiscience: Jurnal Interdispliner, 1(10), 38-41.
Ramidy (ed). (2023). Indometer Survey: Prab Owo-Gibran’s Electability Starts Stable In More Than 50%. VOI.ID. https://voi.id/en/news/339722
Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting. (2023). Trend Dukungan kepada Bakal Calon Presiden. https://saifulmujani.com/trend-dukungan-kepada-bakal-calon-presiden/
Setiawanty, Intan. (2024). Anies Bubble Rilis Situs Web Have Anies Day, Desain yang Kreatif dan Mewakili Generasi Muda. Tempo. https://seleb.tempo.co/read/1824937/anies-bubble-rilis-situs-web-have-anies-day-desain-yang-kreatif-dan-mewakili-generasi-muda
Simamora, Jumadal & Sigit Pamungkas. (2022). Analisis Semiotik Pidato Presiden Jokowi terkait “Setelah ini Jatah Pak Prabowo” sebagai Calon Presiden 2024. Precious: Public Relations Journal, 2(2), 152-168.
Siregar, Mangihut. (2019). Membaca Hasil Pemilu Indonesia tahun 2019. Jurnal Studi Kultural, 4(2), 44-50.
Sonjaya, Adang & Budi R. Diningrat. (2023). Relasi Agama dan Politik di Indonesia. JCIC: Jurnal CIC Lembaga Riset dan Konsultan Sosial, 5(1), 21-28. https://doi.org/10.51486/jbo.v5i1.82
Surbakti, Ramlan. (2010). Memahami Ilmu Politik. Jakarta: Penerbit PT Grasindo.
Sutarini, Ida A. (2019). Pengukuran Efektivitas Penggunaan Media Baliho pada Pemilihan Umum 2019 terhadap Generasi Milenial. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Desain dan Arsitektur (SENADA), vol. 2, 237-241.
Copyright (c) 2024 Dafiq Febriali Sahl, Agus Mauluddin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright Notice
Author(s) who wish to publish with this journal should agree to the following terms:
-
Author(s) retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 License (CC BY-NC) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work’s authorship and initial publication in this journal for noncommercial purposes.
-
Author(s) are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
The publisher publish and distribute the Article with the copyright notice to the JCIC: Jurnal CIC Lembaga Riset dan Konsultan Sosial with the article license CC-BY-NC 4.0.